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Israeli assets and the shekel remain under pressure and oil and gold prices are marginally higher than last week. World Markets Impact From MidEast Attacks WanesBlackRock chart on its Geopolitical Risk IndicatorNOWHERE TO RUN TO... Last updated shortly before the weekend events in Israel, BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Indicator - which attempts to capture market attention to political risks - had indeed crept up to six month highs. Releasing its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that more volatile commodity prices were a possible reflection of both greater climate and geopolitical risk. And yet hand wringing about geopolitical risk in different corners of the globe can also deflect from rising political risks in core economies - not the least in the United States.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Vincent Mortier, Anna Rosenberg, Kristina Hooper reckons, Hooper, that's, It's, Amundi's Rosenberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, West Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Iran, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Taiwan, Ukraine

☆ We've been positive on China for quite some time, says asset management firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe've been positive on China for quite some time, says asset management firmVincent Mortier of Amundi says it likes China A-shares, but "not the very large names."

☆ Europe's stellar stocks and bonds rally has gone too far - Amundi
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/IllustrationLONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - A blazing rally in European stocks and government bonds has gone too far, the chief investment officer of the region's largest asset manager said on Wednesday, warning that markets are ignoring the possibility of euro zone rates going as high as 4%. MSCI's broad index of European shares outside the UK (.dMIEU00000PUS) is up 8.8% so far in January. "We could expect a consolidation of 15% to 20% from current levels," on European equity indices, Mortier said. "These kinds of processes are very powerful and work well until something breaks, and that's why we don't want to participate [in the rally]," Mortier said. Continued ECB rate rises after the U.S. Federal Reserve pauses its hiking cycle could see the dollar weaken further, he said.

While governments worldwide are grappling with high inflation and low growth, UK policymakers are still rebuilding fiscal and political credibility following the brief, chaotic premiership of Liz Truss. Worries about growth are leading some investors to limit their holdings of the pound and British debt. Reuters GraphicsForeign investors have traditionally been attracted by Britain's strong rule of law, stable governance and thriving financial and professional services sector. In the latest data, up to the second quarter of this year, FDI represented more than half the net outflow - a result of strong UK investment abroad but weak inward investment too. Stephen Welton, executive chairman of major growth capital investor BGF, said attracting foreign investment was like a global competitive sport - one that Britain had previously excelled at.

"While we have been cautious, there is an important shift going on with the COVID reopening." The protests were the strongest public defiance during Xi's political career, China analysts said. If protests were to continue, this would add to the risk premium, said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at DWS Group. Social discontent stemming from the zero-COVID policy added to risks in executing and implementing government policies, said Mark Haefele, global wealth management CIO at UBS in Zurich. We also view China’s sluggish recovery as a risk for the global economy and markets."

"Protests are a concern in the short-term," Seema Shah, chief strategist at $500 billion asset manager Principal Global Investors told Reuters, adding that latest events supported the view that winds were changing. "While we have been cautious, there is an important shift going on with the COVID reopening." If protests were to continue, this would add to the risk premium, said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at DWS Group. "We believe this divergence in view will drive an outperformance in A shares over H shares," Tang said. We also view China’s sluggish recovery as a risk for the global economy and markets."

But you have to go back centuries in some cases to get anything nearly as bad as 2022 for 'safer' sovereign bonds. "2023 will be the year of the bond," claimed Chris Iggo, chair of the AXA IM Investment Institute. "Road to recession - bullish bonds and quality credit," was how SocGen entitled their view. And while stock volatility makes forecasters nervy, there's a clear attraction for long-term funds in seeking both the fixed income as well as the lift to bond funds when sub-par price discounts disappear into maturity for most high-quality names. "Long high quality bonds in the U.S. and Europe seems like an obvious strategy for 2023," said hedge fund manager Stephen Jen at Eurizon SLJ Capital.

☆ Italy's right-wing bloc set for election win: five questions for markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Giorgia Meloni, leader of the nationalist Brothers of Italy, is seen as frontrunner to become Italy's first female prime minister. read moreThe absence of anti-euro rhetoric seen in the 2018 election has reassured investors, for now. At around 225 basis points, the closely watched gap between 10-year Italian and German bond yields has been relatively stable . That would cause some angst since the constitution protects issues related to Italy's EU membership. read moreReuters Graphics2/ Could Italy's EU funding plan be modified?

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